Glazing Market Conditions Report — October 2026

Prepared by All American Windows – VP of Precon, Sammy DeLaHoz

Executive Summary

For the first time in 2026, aluminum pricing moved in the right direction — twice in a row. The Midwest Metal Average Transaction Price peaked at $2.827/lb in June and has pulled back to $2.590 in September. That's an 11.1% correction from the top. Combined with LME futures softening from their highs, the data is telling a consistent story: the escalation cycle that dominated the first half of this year is plateauing.

Costs are not cheap — still up 18.3% since January and roughly 20% above 2025 averages. But the direction has changed. And in this market, direction is everything. Teams that re-budgeted through the April–May manufacturer increases are now sitting on an accurate, stable baseline. That is an advantage worth using.

Aluminum Trend ($/lb) — The Rollercoaster

December 2025: $2.156
January 2026: $2.198
February 2026: $2.421
March 2026: $2.430
April 2026: $2.618
May 2026: $2.684
June 2026: $2.827 — PEAK
July 2026: $2.717
August 2026: $2.512
September 2026: $2.590

+18.3% vs. January | +20% vs. 2025 | -11.1% from peak

Q4 Warning: Midwest premium forecast to widen to $560–610/t on year-end restocking. Lock volume before November.

The Number That Matters Most Right Now: 93

Ninety-three days until Florida's 9th Edition Building Code takes effect on December 31, 2026. The permit application date is the trigger — not construction start, not delivery. Submit before Dec 31 and you're grandfathered under 8th Edition rules for the life of that permit.

Key impacts after Dec 31:

More stringent energy and structural requirements will demand higher performing, more expensive products.

Budget 5–15% cost premium on glazing for 9th Edition projects.

What $15 Billion Looks Like on the Ground

South Florida is not slowing down. It is in the most concentrated luxury development cycle the region has ever seen — 26+ branded projects across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach representing over $15B in total development value. Of 53 Miami-Dade projects tracked carrying 16,162 units, only 22 had cleared permitting as of September 5. That means 31 projects worth of glazing scope are still moving through the pipeline right now.

Florida's west coast is seeing similar development starts, particularly Sarasota and Collier county. Large residential and hospitality projects are currently under way, breaking ground or closing financing.

The projects are real. The permits are moving. The question is whether your team is positioned early enough to capture them.

Why We're Cautiously Optimistic — Not Fully Optimistic

Two things that could undo the good news are still in play.

The U.S.–Iran conflict has not resolved. Strait of Hormuz shipping remains largely stalled, and the Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum supply. Any escalation pushes energy costs up for smelters across Europe and Asia — and that pressure flows downstream to finished goods pricing.

Separately, the Fed's September 16 hike to 3.75–4.00% confirmed higher-for-longer through at least mid-2027, affecting project financing and developer appetite across the board. Institutional aluminum forecasts range from $3,500–3,800/t (Wood Mackenzie) to $4,105/t (CRU Group) — that spread reflects geopolitical uncertainty, not analytical disagreement.

Labor & Lead Times

Florida remains one of the most labor-constrained markets in the country. No meaningful relief expected before year-end. Standard systems are predictable. Custom and specialty: plan for extended lead times. Early procurement is schedule protection.

The Bottom Line — October 2026

This is the best window the market has offered all year. A stable bidding environment. The largest forward development pipeline in South Florida history. And 93 days left to lock projects into 8th Edition code before the rules change.

The teams that use this window will be best positioned heading into 2027. The ones that wait will be repricing, redesigning, and competing for tighter supply on the other side of December 31.

Have questions about how any of this affects your projects? Reach out directly — sammy@aawimpact.com

Glazing Market Update - October 2026